From the California Recall to the Woodward and Acosta book, Peril...

A Yin and Yang day with simply great and simply frightening news...

Tuesday’s First Amazing Story: Newsom Wins BIG

It was the kind of day The Resistant Grandmother lives for. With his huge victory over the GOP’s attempts to unseat him, California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom prevailed with well over 60 percent of the vote; the Republican recall scheme failed miserably. Moreover, GOP efforts to claim a “rigged election”--an all-too familiar mantra, but one now being charged by Republicans even before the vote tallying begins--became a non-starter, given the election’s landslide numbers.

And my family who lives in California--and, by extension, me--can sleep more easily now, knowing Conservative Radio Talk Show host Larry (“pay reparations to slave holders”) Elder, the leading GOP contender in California, will not join the legion of Red state governors in creating another Donald Trump-inspired hellscape for women, free and fair elections, and people in favor of Covid vaccines.

According to NBC election guru Steve Kornacki, Newsom won the kind of landslide victory needed to burnish California’s progressive legacy and Democratic influence in future elections. Voting percentages replicated President Biden’s 2020 commanding 64 percent California victory over 34 percent for Donald Trump as the “No Recall” vote similarly came in at 63.9 “No“ and 36 percent for “Yes.”

According to Kornacki, Republicans’ best hope for a win would have been in Southern California’s storied Orange County with its more than 1,600,000 registered voters. But recall forces failed big there, too.

Orange County no longer in the Republican column

Orange County used to be the California Republican Party’s most reliable bastion of conservative voters with Ronald Reagan as one of its favorite sons. But the County’s growing pluralistic population belied the 1984 Republican-sponsored Prop 187 that targeted illegal immigration in California.  Immigrant backlash is reported to be the beginning of the end for Red California, as now the most pluralistic state in the nation is reliably Blue. Biden won Orange County with 53.5 percent of the vote in 2020; this year Newsom won with 53 percent. “Yes” recall votes would have required more than 60 percent in Orange County, Kornacki said.

The strong Orange County totals also bode well for retaining its five Democratic out of a total of seven Congressional representatives in the 2022 midterms, which otherwise could pose the usual midterm challenges for the party of a sitting president.

Vaccines and economy: two winning Democratic messages

Axios reporter Jim Vandehei said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” that yesterday’s thumbs down on the recall proved the strength of two key Democratic messages going into the midterms: the push for vaccines and the nation’s healthy economy.  In contrast, Republican messages have proven to be more problematic: “If you go too Trumpian, that won’t work.” But candidates who are not Trumpian enough won’t win the GOP base vote, either, Vandehei said.

In even better news for Democrats, Obama campaign manager David Plouff cited the drumbeat of Republican allegations of “rigged elections” (as parroted by Elder), as continuing to pose problems in getting out the GOP vote, as may have have been the case in California.  Republicans needed a massive turnout to win the recall, “but what they heard was ‘Why bother’?” Plouff said.

Yesterday’s Second Major Story: More Jaw-Dropping News of Trump Attempts to Steal the 2020 Election

It Was Even Worse Than We Thought

But Tuesday’s news wasn’t all about the California election. A big chunk of it came from a new book written by Washington Post Journalists Bob Woodward and Bob Acosta, Peril, about Donald Trump’s last weeks in office and danger to the world and America as he plotted his vengeful comeback.

Apocalypse Then 

Peril reveals just how close America came to the kind of Armageddon many of the most paranoid among us--including me--feared in the post-election time frame from Nov. 3 to Jan. 20. As Trump saw his chances of remaining in office fading and then erased with ongoing state verification of vote tallies, Trump used every tool at his disposal--including creating the Big Lie that the election was stolen and mobilizing an army of supporters who believed it--to stay in office, putting this country and the world on a terrifying knife’s edge.

The book will be available next week, but early copies to news outlets describe how, were it not for a handful of people in key positions of either official or unofficial status, Donald Trump might have caused a Constitutional or world-wide crisis of epic proportions, which may have allowed him to finagle a way to stay on the job. 

Fear Trump Would Attack China

Key among those concerns was China’s growing fear that Trump was preparing an attack, nuclear or otherwise, on the Asian continent. This fear was fueled on Nov. 9 less than one week after the election when Trump fired Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and replaced him with an “acting” Defense Secretary with less confidence and clout. Trump continued by appointing other, unqualified loyalists throughout the Pentagon raising questions throughout the Defense Department and the Military as what Trump was up to.

With these changes, many feared that Trump might deliberately create a nuclear disaster or start a “Wag the Dog”-like war, referring to a 1997 fictional satire about a president who begins an international conflict as a ploy to remain in office.  Trump had proven throughout his presidency he felt few if any constraints in doing anything he wanted to do.

Trump’s personality and lack of clarity in conducting foreign relations also raised the concern of other world leaders, including China’s General Li Zuochen, general of the People’s Liberation Army, equivalent in status to U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley.  In October 2020, Li saw U.S. military exercises in the South China Sea, Trump’s belligerent attitude toward China over his trade wars, and the president’s angry and uncontrolled personality as evidence Trump may be ramping up for a military attack.  

After seeing intelligence reports suggesting China was convinced of an attack, Milley called Li in late October 2020. Milley’s purpose was to assuage Li’s fears by saying that he, Milley, would stand in the way of Trump’s beginning such an aggression--believing that, without such assurances, China might be thinking of a pre-emptive attack. Milley saw himself as did others both in the U.S. and other governments as virtually the last line of defense in the U.S. military structure against any dangerous Trump gambit.

Milley called Li a second time on Jan. 8, two days after raging Trump followers attacked the U.S. Capitol in a violent attempt to cancel the vote.  Saying to Li soothingly, “Democracy can be sloppy sometimes,” Milley offered his assurances that as he, Milley, was at the top of the military helm, everything would remain under control.

For this, Milley has earned a predictable rash of opposition from Republicans who for four years consistently enabled Trump’s worst instincts, including Florida Senator Marco Rubio who called for Milley’s immediate firing by Biden for calling China’s military leader.

But Milley actually had precedent for such actions, tracing back to the administration of another out-of-control (Republican) president, Richard Nixon, during the Watergate crisis in the mid 1970s. In August 1974 then Defense Secretary James Schlesinger told military officials to check with him and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs first before carrying out orders from Nixon, fearing the embattled president might similarly launch a revenge attack.

Adult v. Child

Although necessary, such assurances were risky for Milley, as U.S. law puts the power of launching a nuclear attack solely in the hands of the President of the United States, in concert with the Secretary of Defense who could, theoretically, but at great risk to his (or her) career, attempt to thwart or push back on such an order.  So Trump’s appointment of pleasant-but-weak “acting” defense Secretary Christopher C. Miller after firing Defense Secretary Mark Esper resulted in restrained but real panic not only throughout the Pentagon, but in other parts of the government as well. 

CIA Director: “We are on the way to a right-wing coup”

The fear of some sort of Trump-induced calamity was echoed by CIA Director Gina Haspel who confided her fear to General Milley that, “We are on the way to a right-wing coup,” according to the Woodward/Acosta book.

Snake Pit

Woodward and Acosta underscored the need for Milley’s assurances as domestic and world leaders worried that Trump might use America’s nuclear weapons much like a spoiled child throwing around his toys in an uncontrolled fit.  One of the high-ranking Americans who had for four years tried to check Trump’s worst impulses but was thwarted by Republican opposition was House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In a phone call with Milley on Jan. 8 after the Trump-inspired Capitol insurrection, Pelosi said:

“I hope you can prevail in the insane snake pit of the Oval Office and the crazy family, as well. You’d think there would have been an intervention by now. The Republicans have blood on their hands and everybody who enables them to do what he does has blood on their hands for the tragic effect (he has had) for our country.  This man is not sane--and everybody knows it. We’ve been taken over by a dictator who used forces against another branch of government. And he’s still sitting there. He should have been arrested. He should have been arrested on the spot. He had a coup d’etat against us so he can stay in office. There should be some way to remove him.”
Milley was reported as saying he agreed with everything Pelosi said.

Tarnishing the Pence Halo

Another of the book’s astounding revelations includes an expansion of the story of Vice President Mike Pence’s actions and his role in overseeing the voting certification process.  Up until now, Pence had received good reviews for his steadfastness in authorizing the states’ electoral vote presentations, thus ensuring the Biden victory.  But the book reveals that Pence’s “good guy” reputation on Jan. 6-7 is not quite so black and white.

The Woodward/Acosta reporting shows how the Vice President actually looked for a way to satisfy Trump’s expectation that Pence reject one or more state vote totals, thus throwing the election decision into chaos, which likely would have given Trump cover to stay in office. But Pence’s calls to former Vice President Dan Quayle, another Hoosier, as Pence is, show just how vulnerable Pence was to Trump’s demands and bullying. 

In one conversation between the two Indiana-bred government officials, Quayle, now living in Arizona, disabused Pence from believing there was a legal path to rejecting any of the state vote totals, asserting firmly: “Mike, you have no flexibility on this. None. Zero. Forget it. Put it away,” thus today earning Quayle the title of “Savior of Democracy” in some circles. Quayle also assured Pence there were no problems in Arizona’s voting process or tallying, as Trump asserted to persuade Pence in playing the spoiler role.

Call to Action: Don’t Elect Another Trump

The Resistant Grandmother has thought about any appropriate calls to action for either the Recall or Trump portions of this posting. An important Recall follow-up involves the importance of easy access to voting. California’s mailing ballots to eligible voters prevented would-be voters from facing lines at the polls which traditionally discourages voting participation. In this, classically Progressive California continues to point the way for other states.

As for the Trump story, I concluded that many rational, alternative policies that may be good to pursue now that we have a rational and well-intentioned president may not have worked in the critical final three months of Trump’s presidency as Trump had ignored or destroyed so many guardrails that nothing short of Impeachment--and the brave actions by some good remaining leaders in government such as Milley and Pelosi--did or could have saved us from the dangers he posed.

Nonetheless, the dangers Trump posed to nuclear security do bear some consideration now that he is out of office. According to an overview authored by David Jonas and Bryn McWhorter on the Arms Control Association (ACA) site page, this interest has only been heightened since, as “(Trump) made a habit of unilaterally changing national policy at the speed of a tweet.”  The ACA is a non-partisan organization founded in 1971 dedicated to “promoting public understanding of and support for effective arms control policies.”

Nonetheless, the ACA offers some possible solutions--most having to do with expanding responsibility for nuclear decision-making to a wider circle of government leaders, such as the attorney general and secretary of defense. However, Trump’s choice of AG and his complicity in allowing Trump confederates Michael Flynn and Roger Stone go unpunished might not have improved any nuclear life-or-death decision-making all that much. Nor might an acting Secretary of Defense have offered much in the way of candid advice.

Another idea posted on the ACA site suggests changing a president’s singular decision to a consensus among the President and the Vice President and Speaker of the House--two persons next in line in the Constitutionally-mandated line of succession. And still others recommend the Supreme Court and or an array of national security experts to weigh in. Still the Resistant Grandmother remains skeptical, envisioning how the compliant Pence and, say, a possible House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, known for his virtually incandescent ambition, could offer much in the way of honest, prudent advice.

Bottom line: the anti-democratic positions of the current Republican Party raise grave questions as to whether any Republican in today’s environment can be trusted to make decisions that benefit American interests.

On the other hand, retired General Barry McCaffrey has said something repeatedly that the Resistant Grandmother can support: never again elect Trump or anyone like him to be President. By extension, I would advise at this point in time not to elect any Republican to a position of power. The Party is too undemocratic for such trust to be either wise or safe.