"Party of Losers" Faces Facts

Suddenly, the New York Times/Siena poll seems less relevant, given Tuesday's vote.

It’s been two days since Tuesday’s groundbreaking election. You know, the one following Monday’s announcement of the results of a New York Times/Siena poll that had Donald Trump winning over Joe Biden in five key swing states. 

On Monday night I’m curled in the fetal position. But on Tuesday I’m staying up late celebrating the sweeping pro-abortion results from Kentucky to Ohio to Pennsylvania to Virginia.  Within two short days, the political earth seemed shakened by a
seismic event.

Bluegrass blowout and Keystone sweep
In summary – in Kentucky, Gov. Andy Beshear, an advocate for women’s abortion rights, won handily over GOP rival Daniel Cameron. In Pennsylvania, Democrats swept statewide court races and added a key Democratic judge to the state’s Superior (supreme) Court, tipping the power balance from the GOP to Dems.

Buckeye breakthrough
In Ohio, 58 percent of the electorate voted to codify the first and second trimester protections found in Roe v. Wade — destroyed in June 2022 by Justice Samuel Alito’s terse opinion and the Supreme Court’s 6-3 Republican majority — enshrining them in Ohio’s state constitution.  

The Dogwood state’s hold and flip
And in Virginia, the last southern state to still offer the full slate of Roe’s reproductive protections, voters rejected Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin’s plan to ban abortions 15 weeks after conception.  By maintaining Democratic control of the Virginia Senate and flipping the majority to Democrats in the state House of Delegates, voters gave Democrats as many as four seat legislative majorities that would thwart Youngkin’s scheme. 

Headlines such as, “Democrats romp, Youngkin flops,” “Republicans can blame themselves for what happened,” and “Election results point to major GOP liability on abortion heading into 2024” greeted news readers the next morning, signaling the devastating repudiation of the GOP’s abortion policies and strategies since Dobbs.  

Sobering
Democrats’ strong support of women’s reproductive rights resonated everywhere, even among Republicans. Ohio exit poll results showed votes to protect women’s rights were popular even among Trump voters – a phenomenon backed up by Kentucky votes for abortion-friendly Beshear when Trump won the Bluegrass state by 26 percentage points in 2020.  

Tuesday’s widespread wins sent sobering messages to Republicans still pushing party policies of total or near-total bans – the kind passed by 18 red state legislatures and promoted by purple state governors like Virginia’s Youngkin.  “If I were an anti-abortion politician, I’d be scared,” concluded Tresa Undem, a public opinion researcher who studies abortion rights (washington post 7 nov. 2023). 

The November 7 victories remain all the more impressive due to the David v. Goliath nature of the risks and work that went into them.  As evidence, Ohio’s Tuesday win foiled the efforts of well funded Republican legislators dead set against any abortion protections in their ruby-red state.

Power and opposition
Even though polls showed six in 10 Ohio voters favored reproductive freedoms, Governor Mike DeWine and Secretary of State Frank LaRose and other Ohio GOP officials down the chain “used the power of their offices” to thwart grass root efforts to protect them.  At issue: an extreme six-week abortion ban passed by the GOP-controlled Ohio legislature similar to those immediately passed in other red states following the Supreme Court’s repudiation of Roe (nytimes 7 nov. 2023). 

In response, Ohio abortion rights activists fought to put the issue up for referendum.  LaRose then purged tens of thousands of largely African American voters from voter rolls as “inactive” after early voting for the November election was already underway and the deadline to re-register had passed (26 oct. Ohio Capitol Journal).

Dirty dealings
Ohio GOP legislators then raised the threshold for passing a constitutional amendment to 60 percent when, historically, Ohio referendums have required winning only more than half for passage. A 57 percent majority rejected that measure, so Republicans resorted to a misinformation campaign (nytimes 2 nov. 2023) and changed some language such as “fetus” to “unborn child” to cast the measure in a
pro-life light.

Popular governor v. rising star
The governor’s contest in red state Kentucky also threatened to be an uphill battle, although Beshear went into the race widely popular and with a proven track record, having brought Medicaid (called something else so as not to annoy red Republicans) and Biden infrastructure improvements to the state.  

Facing off against the incumbent Democrat was State Attorney General Daniel Cameron — a photogenic African American, protegé of U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell, and rising star in Republican politics. 

Baggage
Nonetheless, Cameron was not without baggage, having squelched a prosecution of the police officers who killed Breonna Taylor in a tragically inept raid of misidentification. Additionally, Cameron had gone all in with Republican orthodoxy, proudly proclaiming in the election’s run-up he opposed a women’s right to an abortion even in matters of incest or rape.

Voice for girls and women
As governor, Beshear had been an outspoken supporter of women’s rights and endorsed a bold rebuttal to blunt Cameron’s uncompromising position. 
A campaign ad featured a 16-year-old girl named “Hadley” telling the story of how Cameron’s abortion policy would have ruined her life had he been governor. It became the touchstone of Beshear’s appeal to voters. Looking directly at the camera with a strength and self-possession beyond her years, she said:
“I was raped by my stepfather after years or sexual abuse. I was 12.
Anyone who believes there should be no exceptions for rape and incest could never understand what it’s like to stand in my shoes…To tell a 12-year-old girl she must carry the baby of her stepfather who raped her is unthinkable. I’m speaking out because women and girls need to have options. Daniel Cameron would give us none.”

Significance
Tuesday’s political fallout is still being sifted and examined for its impact. 

Judging from a quick view of Fox TV’s morning-after coverage, the alt right’s spin revolves around a belief that Joe Biden’s low numbers from the Times/Siena poll still make Donald Trump’s reelection almost a certainty.  

But “Fox & Friends” revealed a Republican unwillingness to face the truth of the GOP’s big loss, as its coverage led off with the Republicans’ only Nov. 7 victory – in Mississippi – and did not mention Democrats’ Ohio, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania triumphs until well into the show, focusing instead on Peter Doocy’s taking his baby into the voting booth on election day.

Since the younger Doocy lives in Virginia, the conversation segued into the loss of both legislative houses in the state, and his conclusion, rightly, that Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s chances of now getting into the presidential race in knight-on-white-horse fashion no longer looked good.

But stepping away from alt right TV offers another perspective on Democrats’ 2024 chances.  Political pollster and analyst Cornell Belcher said on MSNBC that the reproductive freedom issue was likely to help Democrats in next year’s election as a “mobilizing issue” that’s sure to inspire voter turnout just as it has in Kansas, California, Michigan, Montana, Kentucky, Vermont, and now Ohio – all of which have enshrined Roe-type rights in their state constitutions since the High Court threw out Roe in 2022. 

The economy v. abortion
He said that mobilizing issues are different from “concerning” issues, like the economy, which is often cited by voters as their number one priority.  But the economy traditionally does not inspire the level of turnout that issues igniting passion do, like fighting for reproductive rights.  

Would voters be likely to split their ticket and choose Trump over Biden if their most passionate issue, abortion, is driving them to the polls?  It’s hard to see that happening, since Donald Trump is the man most proudly responsible for their plight.

In a 2016 interview with MSNBC host Chris Matthews, Matthews pressed Trump, “Do you believe in punishment for women (for abortion) – yes, or no?” and Trump replied, “Yes, there has to be some form of punishment.”  The interview shows Trump harbored no interest in protecting women's reproductive freedoms or women themselves. 

“It was an honor”
That attitude continues to this day as Trump routinely brags, “I’m the man who brought down Roe” (May 11 CNN interview) and it “was an honor to terminate Roe v. Wade” (remarks at June 2022 rally).  Likely television ads will drive home that point, challenging Republican women to think hard between protecting their reproductive rights or vote for the man who caused their problems in the first place and could make
them worse. 

In the meantime, the Republican response to Tuesday’s takedown has ranged from anger, to doubling down, to not knowing yet what to do.

Long-time Trump devoteé and podcaster/influencer Steve Bannon blamed Republicans for lazily not getting the vote out in Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania.  He said: “Don’t come in here this morning and whine about abortion; stand up and do your job! Get out in the trenches and fight!”

South Carolina Senator and erstwhile Trump apologist Lindsey Graham vowed to resurrect his old 15-week abortion ban idea and get it passed in Congress – the same idea rejected Tuesday by Virginia voters. 

Sick of losing!
None of the GOP presidential candidates in last night’s primary debate declared the need for a change in direction, although both Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy said they were sick and tired of seeing the Republican Party losing big in national and state elections.  “We’re a party of losers!” Ramaswamy said.

They stopped short of pointing the finger at the former president — for stacking the High Court with anti-Roe jurists — or at red state legislatures passing Draconian abortion laws, as Florida did earlier this year at Gov. DeSantis’ direction in the dead
of night.

But as Tuesday’s elections show, the “honor to terminate” extends now from voters to
the GOP.

—trg

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–trg