Trump's Plan B may be (another) insurrection
No one would put it past him at this point.
The same day former president Donald Trump was warned by a federal judge he cannot attempt to influence witnesses or taint future jury members, Trump on his social media platform says: “IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU.”
Three questions, and answers
That it came so quickly after Federal Magistrate Moxila Upadhyaya warned Trump that “It is a crime” to “...otherwise obstruct the administration of justice,” by making threats against anyone involved in the judicial process, and then asking Trump if he understood — he did — raises at least three questions:
Is Trump crazy?
Didn’t he remember that agreement with the Judge?
Does he actually want to go to jail?
To these questions, TRG would answer yes; yes; and quite possibly, yes — as a way of getting back his old job. In Trump’s way of thinking, going to jail could burnish his “martyr” trope and pay off at the ballot box. With the former guy, there’s always
a dark and fevered angle he can work with the troops.
Never quite “OK”
Trump’s psychological health has generated speculation for a long time, but even as recently as Friday when former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi described his demeanor as a “scared puppy” while entering the court house.
The dog thing again
Ironic, because Trump famously hates dogs and uses “as a dog” to finish nasty descriptions of all sorts of people he doesn’t like – such as, “he’s as dirty as a dog,” or “dead as a dog.” Things like that.
I’ll keep up the analogy just to pile on for piling on’s sake: Trump was a lap dog in the courtroom and an attack dog once he returned to his Bedminster home and took to his Truth Social site.
Different, but not in a good way
Seriously, though, Trump’s sanity has been a topic of speculation ever since he began demonstrating personal traits and espousing policies different from any modern president, even Nixon. Or any earlier presidents that I know of – even the worst ones like James Buchanan and Andrew Johnson.
Who among them would have been busy (after 11 a.m., Trump’s normal arrival time in the Oval) ceding American global leadership, sucking up to dictators, rigging elections, and destroying Americans’ belief in their values? Again, none other than Trump that I know.
The bleach cure
And then there was his refusal to take responsibility for protecting the American people. His lack of concern over the country’s need for accurate information about Covid 19 and its variations was staggering and helped bring about more than a
million deaths.
And who can forget his rambling, stream-of-consciousness “press conferences” on the topic? Remember his call for Americans to ingest bleach? At least one woman did.
She died.
Mary’s take
Trump’s niece Mary Trump, a clinical psychologist, has had first hand experience in assessing the family dynamics that have shaped Trump’s psychology: an often ill and distant mother and a megalomaniacal, cruel father, for starters.
A dysfunctional family led to Trump’s insecurity, an inability to relate authentically to others, and an all-consuming fixation on money that became embedded with his emotional sense of worth, she said (new republic july 10 2020).
Other mental health experts weigh in
A report written by forensic psychiatrist Bandy Lee and a group of 27 other psychiatrists, psychologists, and other specialists of the World Mental Health Coalition connected Trump’s emotional state to his current woes.
“Trump is now living through an intolerable loss of respect,” said Lee in a January 11, 2021 issue of Scientific American, published shortly after the Jan. 6 insurrection. The former president’s “respect issue” presumably would not have been helped by his having to wait 14 minutes last Thursday for the judge’s arrival; being addressed (appropriately) as “Mr., not “President” Trump; his having to listen to the multiple counts lodged against him; and the possible 60 years of jail time they represent.
With the latest Justice Department indictment, Trump now faces a total 78 criminal counts representing “theoretically hundreds of years in prison” (Bloomberg news
august 2 2023).
DOJ: not playin’
And given the severity of Trump’s crimes, it’s likely the DOJ would urge the former president be incarcerated if found guilty, say experts, as opposed to confinement in the comfort of his own home.
According to George Washington University national security lawyer and law professor Kel McClanahan, Jack Smith’s unsparing, direct tone in describing the gravity of the charges shows “Mr. Trump is a kingpin who knowingly broke the law, endangered national security, endangered national nuclear weapon security, (and) endangered other countries’ national security” (the independent august 6 2023).
And Trump’s call for retribution won’t help the former president avoid or lessen incarceration should he be found guilty, which is why Trump, again, could turn to violence and insurrection to get his way.
Lee contends that in true strongman fashion, Trump’s personal inadequacies do not hurt his relationship with his followers with whom he shares a strong bond forged by loss and anger. While Trump’s grievances spawned from an abusive upbringing, his followers’ are related more often to economic deprivation or, simply, that America is passing them by.
Trump’s pathology explains his hold on his base, a.k.a the bulk of today’s Republican party. “Violence helps compensate for feelings of powerlessness and inadequacy,” said Lee. Ironically, however, “(an) extreme narcissism does not allow for equality with other human beings, as democracy requires” (Lee).
Uncharted territory
It’s been two-and-a-half years since the Capitol riot, a time when Trump has lived in a world beyond the consequences of his actions.
The failure to hold him accountable until now, no matter how egregious the scandals, seems to have reinforced Trump’s belief he can operate with impunity.
But no more.
That’s why the seriousness of the charges coupled with the Judge’s stern warning may have triggered a belief he’s now in uncharted territory, and an anger that must be directed toward everything the Judge represents.
Going to jail as a result of breaking Thursday’s or future court promises could rile up his violence-prone followers and trigger another insurrection that may conceivably vault him back into the presidency (see Jan. 6). Any such incarceration could attach martyr status typical of the kind that has leapfrogged and kept other authoritarians in power.
Agnew’s ghost
An obvious “out” – to strike a deal with prosecutors similar to that offered to criminal Nixon Vice President Spiro Agnew in 1973: resign from politics in exchange for dropped charges. Agnew took it.
Given Trump’s pathology, the former president may see a deal in which he would have to admit guilt to all his crimes as a bridge too far for a fragile ego forged years ago.
What’s at stake for the U.S.
So Trump’s DEFCON1 warning clarifies what’s at stake in The United States v. Donald J. Trump and all its variations.
Will Trump and his followers dictate the rules of engagement, or will the judicial system of the United States? My money is on the latter. But Defendant Trump, still in many ways the little boy with an abusive father, will likely put up a hellacious fight.
–trg